Investment Strategy


30
Mar 10

Talking Apple Again!

There is another good article on Apple at The Street.com titled “Apple: Why you should buy the hype“. We found this article interesting as it discusses two aspects of investing that are, not necessarily polar opposites, but could lead to very different decisions. One is what we call as “investment psychology” or investment strategy and the other is raw data. A quick search within this portal will tell you that we have not been shy in pointing out Apple as a great investment in the last several months.

Suffice it to say that we remain long on Apple and believe that the stock will deliver good returns for the next 3 years at the very least. It is one stock that we recommend investors hold on for the long haul. The math is quite simple. Apple continues to innovate and execute in one of the most consistent manner. If one looks at the raw numbers, the price earnings multiple is currently in line with other similar companies. Note that historically Apple has always commanded a slight premium on the P/E multiple. But let us assume that the P/E will remain the same, the EPS (Earnings Per Share) is expected to grow almost at around 50% year after year. That itself translates into a stock price growth of 50% per year. With that potential, we still consider it as one of the best investments out there.

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29
Mar 10

What is the future of the Euro?

The Euro has been around for only over a decade now and there are already questions as to whether the currency is going to survive or not. The Euro reached a double peak around April – July 2008 and has been on a downward trajectory after that. It is currently trading at around 1.34 to the US Dollar and has a strong support at around 1.30. If it goes below 1.30, then it can go all the way down to 1.20.

EURUSD

We are still not making long term forecasts for the Euro yet. Although the challenges faced by the Euro are quite huge with the biggest problem being the economies of the so called second-tier Euro nations. Germany is undoubtedly the “first among equals” and there is every indication that the Germans will tolerate lesser equals only for so long. On hindsight. the Europeans (especially Germany and France) are realizing that the theory of a single currency is much better than the actual practicality of it.

But the US situation is also not strong. And one has to always remember that the strength of a currency is never measured as a standalone item. It is always measured against another currency. Thus, it will turn out to be a case of who can handle the situation better – the US or the entire Euro zone. In the near term we are banking on the Euro falling further at least below the 1.30 mark. Beyond that, we will have to wait and see how things shape up.

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2
Feb 10

Trading Indicators for Newmont Mining

The basic Trading Indicators for Newmont Mining (NYSE: NEM) are giving signals of a downturn in the stock price. Then, of course, there are fundamental reasons for gold and gold mining stocks to be languishing for a bit at this time due to the recent strength of the US Dollar.

NEM_MACD

We are looking at the NEM chart with the plot for the 10-day and the 50-day moving averages. We see that around middle of December 2009, the 10-day moving average went down and crossed the 50-day moving day average on the way down. That typically is a bearish signal for traders and tells us that the stock price is headed down in the near term.

These are small duration moving averages that we are using. So, typically we wait for the indicators to show proof that it will continue with the trend which NEM has in this case. So, our near-term outlook on NEM is that it will stay under $45 for a few weeks at the least.

Accordingly, we are buying the NEM March 2010 $45 put option contracts to make some gains. Our buy-in price is at a premium of $245 per contract and we hope to reap some rewards soon on this trade.

This is our second trade in NEM. Readers may remember that we made some good gains in NEM put options last October. Lets hope this trade is a profitable one as well.

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20
Jan 10

Why are Traders trading on the Apple Tablet vs. Amazon Kindle?

We fail to understand this phenomenon. Search the web on the Apple tablet (presumably going to be announced on January 27, 2010), and at least half the articles will discuss how it is a competitor to the Amazon Kindle. Yesterday I watched the “Fast Money” gang on CNBC discuss the same thing.

If, as traders, we should have learnt something about Apple, is that they do not compete with any existing product in the market. They change the game. When will traders start realizing that Apple has never been a “me too” company. They have been a “top that” company. One has to be bold when predicting or forecasting what Apple is going to do. Only then will one come close to the truth.

Make no mistake about it. We are long on Apple stock as well as options. But we will sell when the bump-up from the news dies down. And we also think our expectations of AAPL stock price moving over $250 after the Tablet announcement is a reasonable expectation. And it will ave nothing to do with the Amazon Kindle.

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8
Jan 10

Options Trading – Why we like it

As the word suggests, trading in the investments world is buying and selling of financial instruments. We differentiate between Trading and Investing by the frequency of the transactions. We define a buy-and-hold strategy as an Investment. Trading, as opposed to that, is buy-and-sell or sell-and-buy. The trading objective is to make quick gains using momentum and knowledge of directional movement as the key factors in making the trading decisions. The typical time frame for closing a trade could be anywhere between a few minutes to a few months.

We use Options as our trading instrument. Options are derivatives of stocks, commodities, currencies, indexes, etc. Basically anything that you can invest in a regulated market such as a stock exchange or a commodities market has options derivatives that one can trade in. We will not go into a detailed definition of options here, but there are several sources on the web where one can get plenty of information on options. Our objective in this note is to highlight why options are a great instrument for short-term trading. And also, why we like short-term trading.

Let us tackle short-term trading first. We believe a straightforward buy-and-hold strategy is a very risky strategy. Our belief has obviously been vindicated with the market turmoil in recent years as well as during the dot-com bust. Investors who had held stock portfolio for years and years had the majority of their gains taken away in a very short span of time. So, at the end many were back to square one. We believe that short-term trading involves risk but, if applied correctly and with discipline, can be a great risk mitigation strategy. Which investment is safe? Even a bank account that cannot even be considered as an investment was not safe for a while. It is only the level of risk that may be different.

We think that people either fall in love with a stock or do not want or have the time to spend doing the necessary research. Those are probably the main reasons why such investors do not look at short-term trading. Our question is why should an investor not sell a stock when there is a very high probability that either the market or the stock price is going to go down? What is the point of holding on thinking we will tackle the roller-coaster ride and then eventually be ok? Why not sell the stock and buy it back when it dips? Sure, one will have some brokerage costs and maybe some tax implications. But they will probably be negligible compared to the cost of weathering the turbulence in the stock price.

So, in a nutshell, our strategy is to act according to the market. When the market is telling you get out, then get out. That is why we are into short-term trading and that is what we cover here. Do not get us wrong. It is not like we do not have or believe in any long-term investments. We do and we think everyone should have some. But we think that to eke out the gains that one can in the market, one has to have a strategy that combines short-term and long-term investments.

Now let us get onto Options Trading. The biggest advantage of options, according to us, is leverage. When we buy one options contract, we are essentially controlling 100 units of the underlying stock (or instrument). That is a huge leverage. Typically, for an “at-the-money” call option, the “delta” will be 1. This means that for every $1 upward movement in the stock price, there will be an equivalent $1 upward movement in the call option premium. Since the call option premium is on a contract consisting 100 units, the $1 value increase in premium translates to a huge percentage increase on the premium. Readers of our articles on trades will know of what we are talking about.

Another reason to trade options is because one can make a play with a known risk. One pays a set amount on the premium to buy an option for a future date and one knows that the maximum loss is the amount paid towards the premium. If the option expires worthless, it is only the premium amount that is lost. As an example, if we think that a stock price is going to go up by about 10% from its current price of say $100; one way to play that would be to buy the stock. However, in order to buy 100 shares of the stock, we would have to make an investment of $10,000. Instead, the 3-month call option for a strike price of $110 may be selling at a premium of $300 per contract. So, our investment to control 100 shares of the stock is only $300. Of course, we would need the stock price to go up to $113 in the 3 months to really break even. But, on the other hand, we may not wait the 3 months and potentially sell the call option contract back in the market at a higher premium assuming that the stock price has moved in the direction we expected it to. Again, readers of our articles will know what we are talking about.

A lot of investors use options to add protection to their investment or to earn some income by selling covered calls. Again, we do not want to go into details here on these strategies but want to highlight that all types and levels of investors can benefit from trading in options.

Any which way you look at it, options trading provides significant opportunities that any investor cannot ignore especially in a volatile market such as we are in.

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7
Jan 10

Sold MGM Mirage Call Options at a gain of 55% in 8 days

mgm call optionsToday we sold our MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) February 2010 $11 call options at a gain of 55% within 8 trading days. This is our first trade close of the new year and we are happy to take a profit. This trade has worked out perfectly for us and exactly as planned. We had purchased the call options at a premium of $55 per contract and have sold it at a premium of $85 per contract today.

We are happy to make a gain of course. But we are also happy because we followed through with our overall trading discipline exactly on this trade. We got into the trade after seeing huge trading volume on the stock. We anticipated the reversal of fortunes (at least short-term) for MGM and decided to make the short term call option play. Now that the stock price has gone up modestly, the value of our call options have also appreciated. So, we did not wait even though there is still some time before the options expire. Tomorrow the momentum may take the stock price higher and perhaps we have left some money at the table. But the important thing is we have booked our profits.

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4
Jan 10

First 10 weeks of Options and FOREX trading performance

Our strategy of posting our options and FOREX trades and investments in this blog is working out well. We have had strong gains trading in Options without getting into too many complex trades. We will not go into details of the winning trades again, but they have been listed in the “Tracking” page.

Going forward we intend to track our performance through a monthly article instead of a running record within the Tracking section. We will post the summary performance under the tracking page.

We are also in the process of tightening our trading plan. This will be more of a collective trading plan designed by our editors and we hope to build in a “best practices” guide from this exercise. The trading plan is also going to include lessons learnt from the past. For instance, while we feel our options trading has gone well, our FOREX trading plan still lacks enough discipline and risk management. More on these topics coming soon.

 

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24
Dec 09

Taking 100-percent gain on half of Netflix call options on same day

netflix call options trading profitOur immediate target for Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) call options was reached late yesterday. We decided to take profits on half of our holdings for a gain of 100% within the same day of purchase. That means the balance holding is free of cost to us as we have already recovered our total cost by selling half the portion.

Our entry price on the January 2010 $60 call options was $45 per contract. We sold half of the contracts at a premium of $90 per contract giving us our 100% gain. In the last 5 trading days, the stock price has gone up nicely from around $53.5 to trade at around $57 at the time of this writing. We usually do not tend to hold on to a trade after it has reached our target. But this time we see good momentum in the stock price and feel we can let it run for a little while longer. Plus the chatter on a takeover is increasing.

Reed Hastings is smiling and so are we.

 

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24
Dec 09

MGM Mirage short term Call Option trade

We are making a short  term call option move on MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM). The stock price has been tremendously depressed and, looking at the call option buying action, seems like it is on a bounce back. The fundamentals of this casino company are not great and with a recession behind us the company has suffered. But just as all good things come to an end, all bad things also come to an end. The stock is down from its 52-week high of over $16 to around $9 at the time of this writing. A comparative chart analysis of the last 3 months with the S&P500 is given below.

MGMcart

But the biggest catalyst for our move is the fact that call option volumes went through the roof yesterday. One thing we have learnt from te market is to follow its trend. Do not fight it. For trading and making short term plays, that can be very profitable.

So, we are buying the February 2010 $11 call options at a premium of $55 per contract. Why did we select this call option? It gives us a little extra time for the trade to play out. The open interest on this call option is quite high (around 8,000 contracts) and that means we are assured of some trading in the option. Thirdly, the stock price is hovering around the $9.5 range. Even though, from a percentage perspective, we are expecting a stock price increase of over 10% in around 6 weeks, it seems like a reasonable figure.

Our expectation, as usual, is to generate a gain of 100% on the contract premium.

 

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23
Dec 09

Trading call options on some Netflix Amazon rumors

netflix call options rumorsThere is considerable chatter in the options market about Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), the online DVD rental company. The traders are looking at a uptick on NFLX as seen in the options activity. Huge trading volume was seen in the January $60 call options which are still around $6 out-of-the-money. So NFLX would have to go up by around 10% between now and January 16, 2010 for these traders to be in the positive with their options.

However we do not, for a moment, think that traders are looking to keep the trade till the expiration. There is some speculation that Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) may make a bid for Netflix. That surely is a huge catalyst for a quick uptick in the stock price. The question is whether something will happen before January expiration. We are going to bet that it will. We are buying the NFLX January 2010 $60 call options at a premium of $45 per contract. Our target is for the premium to double and we will be out of the trade.

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