Posts Tagged: trading


8
Jan 10

Options Trading – Why we like it

As the word suggests, trading in the investments world is buying and selling of financial instruments. We differentiate between Trading and Investing by the frequency of the transactions. We define a buy-and-hold strategy as an Investment. Trading, as opposed to that, is buy-and-sell or sell-and-buy. The trading objective is to make quick gains using momentum and knowledge of directional movement as the key factors in making the trading decisions. The typical time frame for closing a trade could be anywhere between a few minutes to a few months.

We use Options as our trading instrument. Options are derivatives of stocks, commodities, currencies, indexes, etc. Basically anything that you can invest in a regulated market such as a stock exchange or a commodities market has options derivatives that one can trade in. We will not go into a detailed definition of options here, but there are several sources on the web where one can get plenty of information on options. Our objective in this note is to highlight why options are a great instrument for short-term trading. And also, why we like short-term trading.

Let us tackle short-term trading first. We believe a straightforward buy-and-hold strategy is a very risky strategy. Our belief has obviously been vindicated with the market turmoil in recent years as well as during the dot-com bust. Investors who had held stock portfolio for years and years had the majority of their gains taken away in a very short span of time. So, at the end many were back to square one. We believe that short-term trading involves risk but, if applied correctly and with discipline, can be a great risk mitigation strategy. Which investment is safe? Even a bank account that cannot even be considered as an investment was not safe for a while. It is only the level of risk that may be different.

We think that people either fall in love with a stock or do not want or have the time to spend doing the necessary research. Those are probably the main reasons why such investors do not look at short-term trading. Our question is why should an investor not sell a stock when there is a very high probability that either the market or the stock price is going to go down? What is the point of holding on thinking we will tackle the roller-coaster ride and then eventually be ok? Why not sell the stock and buy it back when it dips? Sure, one will have some brokerage costs and maybe some tax implications. But they will probably be negligible compared to the cost of weathering the turbulence in the stock price.

So, in a nutshell, our strategy is to act according to the market. When the market is telling you get out, then get out. That is why we are into short-term trading and that is what we cover here. Do not get us wrong. It is not like we do not have or believe in any long-term investments. We do and we think everyone should have some. But we think that to eke out the gains that one can in the market, one has to have a strategy that combines short-term and long-term investments.

Now let us get onto Options Trading. The biggest advantage of options, according to us, is leverage. When we buy one options contract, we are essentially controlling 100 units of the underlying stock (or instrument). That is a huge leverage. Typically, for an “at-the-money” call option, the “delta” will be 1. This means that for every $1 upward movement in the stock price, there will be an equivalent $1 upward movement in the call option premium. Since the call option premium is on a contract consisting 100 units, the $1 value increase in premium translates to a huge percentage increase on the premium. Readers of our articles on trades will know of what we are talking about.

Another reason to trade options is because one can make a play with a known risk. One pays a set amount on the premium to buy an option for a future date and one knows that the maximum loss is the amount paid towards the premium. If the option expires worthless, it is only the premium amount that is lost. As an example, if we think that a stock price is going to go up by about 10% from its current price of say $100; one way to play that would be to buy the stock. However, in order to buy 100 shares of the stock, we would have to make an investment of $10,000. Instead, the 3-month call option for a strike price of $110 may be selling at a premium of $300 per contract. So, our investment to control 100 shares of the stock is only $300. Of course, we would need the stock price to go up to $113 in the 3 months to really break even. But, on the other hand, we may not wait the 3 months and potentially sell the call option contract back in the market at a higher premium assuming that the stock price has moved in the direction we expected it to. Again, readers of our articles will know what we are talking about.

A lot of investors use options to add protection to their investment or to earn some income by selling covered calls. Again, we do not want to go into details here on these strategies but want to highlight that all types and levels of investors can benefit from trading in options.

Any which way you look at it, options trading provides significant opportunities that any investor cannot ignore especially in a volatile market such as we are in.

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5
Jan 10

Shorting EUR/JPY FOREX pair

EUR FOREX currency pair tradeWe are making a FOREX trade against the Euro (EUR) with the expectation that it will drop in the near term. The month of December 2009 has seen a full 180 degree about turn by traders on their expectations for the EUR. From playing for a rise at the beginning of the month, traders now are banking on the EUR to fall as can be seen from the EUR contract transaction data. The situation with Greece is probably the prime reason but the other PIGS nations namely Portugal, Ireland and Spain are helping as well.

However, we are not shorting the EUR against the US Dollar (USD) as we are not sure of the USD direction in the near term. A safer bet is to go with the Japanese Yen (JPY). So, we are shorting (selling) the EUR/JPY currency FOREX pair and looking for it to move down to around the 129 mark. We sold the FOREX play at 131.90. A move down to the 129 level would give us a gain of around 300 pips.

 

Sponsor: Auto FOREX Trading

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5
Jan 10

Trading Google call options

Google call options tradeWe are making a Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) call option play on a couple of news items. One is their announcement on Nexus One phone based on their Android OS. The other is our anticipation of good 4th quarter earnings they will announce middle of January. Granted, the Nexus One announcement is probably already baked into the stock price. But we think there is still some room for the stock to run.

There are some good things happening for Google as well. The stock price target recently got upgraded to $810 by FBR. That is quite big given that the stock price has been on a run lately. In the last 1 month the price has gone from around $585 to $625 which is close to a 7% rise.

There is still speculation in the market as to whether the Google phone will cause any dent in the Apple iPhone sales. We agree with the market that it will not. However, the smart-phone market itself is expanding at a rapid pace and that fact alone provides some market to Google. And there are strong predictions for mobile search to take off in the next 1 – 3 years which again spells good for Google. The bottom-line for Google is that it is not a negative to have the phone. And their bread and butter business of search is intact.

We are entering into a short term out-of-the-money trade by buying the February 2010 $700 call options at a premium of $320 per contract. This means that we would need the stock price to go up over 10% to be on-the-money. However, our expectations are for a modest gain of around 50% in the contract premium at which point we will sell the call options and get out of the trade. Our expected holding period on this trade is under 4 weeks.

 

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4
Jan 10

First 10 weeks of Options and FOREX trading performance

Our strategy of posting our options and FOREX trades and investments in this blog is working out well. We have had strong gains trading in Options without getting into too many complex trades. We will not go into details of the winning trades again, but they have been listed in the “Tracking” page.

Going forward we intend to track our performance through a monthly article instead of a running record within the Tracking section. We will post the summary performance under the tracking page.

We are also in the process of tightening our trading plan. This will be more of a collective trading plan designed by our editors and we hope to build in a “best practices” guide from this exercise. The trading plan is also going to include lessons learnt from the past. For instance, while we feel our options trading has gone well, our FOREX trading plan still lacks enough discipline and risk management. More on these topics coming soon.

 

Sponsor: Auto FOREX Trading

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24
Dec 09

Taking 100-percent gain on half of Netflix call options on same day

netflix call options trading profitOur immediate target for Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) call options was reached late yesterday. We decided to take profits on half of our holdings for a gain of 100% within the same day of purchase. That means the balance holding is free of cost to us as we have already recovered our total cost by selling half the portion.

Our entry price on the January 2010 $60 call options was $45 per contract. We sold half of the contracts at a premium of $90 per contract giving us our 100% gain. In the last 5 trading days, the stock price has gone up nicely from around $53.5 to trade at around $57 at the time of this writing. We usually do not tend to hold on to a trade after it has reached our target. But this time we see good momentum in the stock price and feel we can let it run for a little while longer. Plus the chatter on a takeover is increasing.

Reed Hastings is smiling and so are we.

 

Sponsor: Auto FOREX trading system

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23
Dec 09

Trading call options on some Netflix Amazon rumors

netflix call options rumorsThere is considerable chatter in the options market about Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX), the online DVD rental company. The traders are looking at a uptick on NFLX as seen in the options activity. Huge trading volume was seen in the January $60 call options which are still around $6 out-of-the-money. So NFLX would have to go up by around 10% between now and January 16, 2010 for these traders to be in the positive with their options.

However we do not, for a moment, think that traders are looking to keep the trade till the expiration. There is some speculation that Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) may make a bid for Netflix. That surely is a huge catalyst for a quick uptick in the stock price. The question is whether something will happen before January expiration. We are going to bet that it will. We are buying the NFLX January 2010 $60 call options at a premium of $45 per contract. Our target is for the premium to double and we will be out of the trade.

Sponsor: Auto FOREX trading system

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16
Dec 09

Retail speculations using Macys call options

We are making another speculative trade (perhaps the last one for 2009) in Macys (NYSE: M). This is again a cheap speculative play thinking ahead of the holiday shopping season. We are buying the January 2010 $20 call options at a premium of $20 per contract. Yes, this one is really cheap but we also have very limited time for the stock to move. It’s current price is just a shade under $17. So, it will have to move around $3 very quickly for us to make any money on this trade. That is over 15% from its current price. So, it is a very speculative trade. But the amount of risk is low and we think the risk reward profile of this trade makes it quite a compelling trade to make. Let us see how compelling the gains turn out to be.

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